[OT] Need someone good at maths and probability to look at my roulette strategy

[nobby]

I feel like gambling... stock trading is stressful, I feel like playing a game

My strategy, probably the most used and oldest one... which Nobby's mind came up with is as follows.

You bet either red or black... however you have to wait until the same colour has appeared three consecutive times in a row, bet on the opposite colour, if it loses on the forth time, bet double etc.. until the colour changes suit and wins.

My question is, what probability do i have, of the opposite colour appearing after, two consecutive times, three, four, five ... etc


I feel like gambling...

[Nidhogg]

If you try telling me you have a strategy for roulette I'll tell you you have a strategy for nothing. The house always wins. Even the so-called 50/50 chances like black/red or odd/even aren't truly 50/50 chances because there's one number on the board that is neither black, red, odd or even. Eventually the house will clean you out.

I saw a guy lose almost a million dollars at Emperor's Casino in Jo'burg once. He didn't even blink. Moral being, only gamble with what you can afford to lose.

[nobby]

oh of course of course !

I only plan of even aiming at winning 1 or 2 pound a time, I'm sure though that probability at a 4th time must be in an odds to my favour... but still the wooden spoon of green zero still applies.

bleh


Anyone help with actual percentages?

[Lexxuk]

If you bet £1 on red, £1 on black, you will almost always win! Thats the best strategy you can get :P

/edit - better answer, the odds *never* change, the ball nor the wheel hold any memory of their last number, so its quite possible to get the green number come up 5 times in a row.

Its like the lottery, you have exactly the same odds of 1,2,3,4,5,6 coming up as any other number combination.

[Asurmen Spec Op]

I feel like gambling... stock trading is stressful, I feel like playing a game

My strategy, probably the most used and oldest one... which Nobby's mind came up with is as follows.

You bet either red or black... however you have to wait until the same colour has appeared three consecutive times in a row, bet on the opposite colour, if it loses on the forth time, bet double etc.. until the colour changes suit and wins.

My question is, what probability do i have, of the opposite colour appearing after, two consecutive times, three, four, five ... etc


I feel like gambling...

The previous results in games like roulette do not affect the next outcome in any way(like rolling a dice), so therefore it is simple.

For one color to appear is 1/2
for it to appear twice in a row is 1/2 * 1/2
for it to appear three times in a row is 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2
so we can get
the chance of it appearing n times in a row is
(1/2) ^2

Again, this is the important part.
The previous result does NOT affect the next result, it doesn't matter if the past 6000 have been red, it has an equal change of being red/black(assuming here that 50/50 change, which afaik it is)

[nobby]

still...

i'm sure probability MUST exist here...

let's look at flipping a coin...

what's the chance of 1 in an million X chance i could flip a coin and get 10 heads in 10 tries?

[specranator]

maybe you could try 21 and make more money, like the MIT guys

[CMaster]

Doesn't matter nobby. The result of the previous flip (with a truly balanced coin) does NOT effect the following flip.
Roulette is pure luck. Simple randomness. You get when you bet slightly worse odds than you actualy have of winning. (Eg the probability of getting red or black is actually only 18/37, but you get evens pay back. Probability of getting the right number is 1/37, but you only get paid back 36 times what you put in.) On average at roulette you WILL lose money. Blackjack or similar is the game if you have a good memory and a stratergy. Dice and roulette are pure chance games, with the odds slightly in favour of the house.

Edit: just to expand on the example you gave earlier nobby:
The chances of getting 10 heads in a row is (1/2)^10. However the chances of the 10th flip being a head is 1/2, regardless of what went before.

[Powerpunsh]

If you play roulette its the keeper who makes your chances.

Why dont you learn how to count cards in Black Jack?
Ace, 7-10 = -1
4-6 = 0
King, jack, queen 2-3= +1
(was something like this)

Go in a casino with 3 friends. let them count this way. If a table is like over +15 jump in with high rised pools.
But dont let gambling get to an addiction.

[nobby]

heh

just found out the record of consecutive same colour ever was 22 times...

And if i wanted to do my 1 pound profit a bet, i'd need 4.194 million at risk maximum if i used the record as a max potential losing streak ever...


bah ><

Tried card counting when i was in the casino...

sitting at the table with the noise and everything...

impossible for nobby's little head to do >_<

[Asurmen Spec Op]

heh

just found out the record of consecutive same colour ever was 22 times...

And if i wanted to do my 1 pound profit a bet, i'd need 4.194 million at risk maximum if i used the record as a max potential losing streak ever...


bah ><

Tried card counting when i was in the casino...

sitting at the table with the noise and everything...

impossible for nobby's little head to do >_<

According to google, the chance of you getting 23 in a row is
1.33130738 × 10^-31
that, is 2^23 tries(on average) to get 23 in a row.
if you somehow play at 100/second, it'd take you
7.5114133 × 10^28 seconds
or,
2.08650369 × 10^25 hours
or,
2.38027408 × 10^21 years
the age of the earth is
4.550000000 *10^9 years
the age of the universe is(assuming 13.61 billion years)
13.61 * 10^9 years.

Doesn't matter nobby. The result of the previous flip (with a truly balanced coin) does NOT effect the following flip.
Roulette is pure luck. Simple randomness. You get when you bet slightly worse odds than you actualy have of winning. (Eg the probability of getting red or black is actually only 18/37, but you get evens pay back. Probability of getting the right number is 1/37, but you only get paid back 36 times what you put in.) On average at roulette you WILL lose money. Blackjack or similar is the game if you have a good memory and a stratergy. Dice and roulette are pure chance games, with the odds slightly in favour of the house.

Edit: just to expand on the example you gave earlier nobby:
The chances of getting 10 heads in a row is (1/2)^10. However the chances of the 10th flip being a head is 1/2, regardless of what went before.

correct, on a 50/50 coin flip(or anything else that is 50/50) the chance of it being one of them is 1/2 regardless of how many times you've flipped before.

It is important to note that casinos put a lot of effort into making sure that the games they play will have them win more than lose on average. Things like slots, roulette, craps are especially good in this regard because people who win generally think they are on a 'lucky streak' and then burn all their money away.

[Powerpunsh]

Tbh: Go and play lottery.
If you win the Jackpot, you'll shit bricks.

[nobby]

I really don't understand these numbers and calculations you throw at nobby... please explain in nobby terms...

I did a 100 spin test, here are the streaks
3 5 3 5 3 6 3 4 3 3 6 5 3 3 3

15 pound profit in 20 mins.

however would require 125 pound to ensure a profit if this streak were to continue.

please could you elaborate those figures easier to me...

like, you have 89% chance of a 5th encounter... etc...


a 99.9999999999999999999999999000011111% of a 12th

[Lodar]

Take it from someone who has lost an obscene amount of money at roulette, there is no effective strategy. Even the 50/50 outside red or black spins have a way of screwing you when you least expect it. Some people refer to it as 'sods law'. Like Nid says, the house always wins.

[nobby]

true true...


meh...



The only way i guess is to have a stupid amount of money... getting a stupid little profit as the sure way to win...




Guess i'll spend days card counting...