View Full Version : Bad luck and Gambling.
Riiiiight.
You know, there's this gambling NPC in NC and i thought i'd try my luck again. I thought i could make some quick money and put some money into clan bank. So i went with my 15 million to that guy and played some rounds. Quickly i won some money and reached the money cap, so i put like 4 million into clan bank. I played again some rounds and won again, so i had 19,9 million. Again i put money into clan bank.
I thought i'd have luck and played with 15 millions again. Well, that thought was wrong... I lose all 15 fucking million. So i take all the money i just put into clan bank back again and play again. Biggest mistake ever.
I lose it all again!
So overall i lost around 25 (twenty-fucking-five) million credits in like 30 mins!
Bad luck I guess... -_-
lol ive been there dude :p
:P just like real life, they real u in with the little wins then they eat ur money =) we all done it, we will never learn :P
Yeah, Kayne and DanK were the biggest "testers" of the gambling NPC. I remember hearing DanK say on Vent how he'd turned 1mill into 3mill+, and then lost it in a matter of mins.
This is Exactly how it works in RL, so kudos in kk one more time. One workaround to this is to place goals or boundaries of what you can do, before you start and NEVER cross those boundaries, at no reason.
Rahs case is exactly what happened in a larger scale in the Greek stock exchange a few years back, in 1999. We are still trying to recover from this.
[TgR]KILLER
14-05-05, 13:45
haha rah got owned :p
you shouldn't gamble as much lol. or know when you have to stop ;) just like irl
Heh, funny thing is i'd never play for real money. Ever.
Heavyporker
14-05-05, 20:06
Gambling dealers in Black Dragon Sector in Dome of York and in Outzone Jail in Neocron City.
Heavyporker
14-05-05, 22:38
Oh, and may I say that you guys really need self-restraint?
heavy, after ur post in the "its realy her" topic in offtopic :p ur the last person to be saying ppl need restraint ;)
Cmon the script is nothing like it is in real life, for a start its impossible to get a true random on a computer, and I seriously doubt that theres an extensive pseudo random function behind the gambling npc's the number of times I've run the one in the jailhouse, the favour has always been in tails.
for a start its impossible to get a true random on a computer
Sigh. Lies.
sanityislost
16-05-05, 04:21
lol silly rah :P
SiL ..:..
Cmon the script is nothing like it is in real life, for a start its impossible to get a true random on a computer, and I seriously doubt that theres an extensive pseudo random function behind the gambling npc's the number of times I've run the one in the jailhouse, the favour has always been in tails.
Not really. All you need to do it get a suitable radioactive source, some means of detecting when a set number of the particles inside the source have decayed, and you're good to go. There's some meesing about with exponential distributions and poisson processes which are beyond the scope of this post, but it's completely possible.
However, this is unwieldy and costly to set up. Instead, a sequence of pseudo-random numbers can be generated by a computer. The sequence is computed by calculating
xn = c xn-1 modulo m,
where c and m are fixed positive integers. i.e. xn is the remainder when c xn-1 is divided by m. Since 0 < xn < m, the so-called pseudo-random number xn/m is considered to be an approximation to a uniform random number on (0, 1). From there, it's simply a matter of scaling.
Two questions:
(i) how can we be sure that there is no repeated pattern in the numbers;
(ii) even with no repeated pattern, how good an approximation is it?
Clearly (i) is crucial and we need to choose the constants c and m in such a way as to ensure that, for any value of the seed, the pattern does not repeat itself until an impossibly enormous number of random numbers has been generated. However, we do have to bear in mind that we must not compromise the efficiency of the computer we
use.
The generally accepted method is to choose m to be a very large prime number which is within the computer’s word size. For a 32-bit machine it turns out that choosing m = 2^31 − 1 and c = 7^5 works well.
No, it's not random on the level of a quantum event, but if you look at something like Monte Carlo Integration using random numbers generated in this way, you'll see that it's a really rather good approximation.
This post would be an awful lot clearer if we had [super] and [sub] tags. But we don't. So it isn't. For that I apologise.
e:Was this too much information?
Cmon the script is nothing like it is in real life, for a start its impossible to get a true random on a computer, and I seriously doubt that theres an extensive pseudo random function behind the gambling npc's the number of times I've run the one in the jailhouse, the favour has always been in tails.
I've actually seen the script.. its written in LUA and IS random.. *hopes i dont get bannzored*
1) Philith, read IMPOSSIBLE TO GET A TRUE RANDOM NUMBER ON ANY COMPUTER.
2) point one is proved by RDevz length explination of radioactive decay and pseudo random functions.
Again i doubt the jail house coin toss script is that extensive lupus odin who ever wrote it or knows about it wanna comment?
and Philith what the heck were you doing looking at the Lua for it.
Computer generated pseudo random numbers are perfectly acceptable for a gambling NPC. If it was tails all the time then we wouldn't even be reading this thread.
N
Again i doubt the jail house coin toss script is that extensive lupus odin who ever wrote it or knows about it wanna comment?
It's implemented quite nicely in C++'s rand() function. That generates a random number between 0 and RAND_MAX. Hell, to get a 50/50 chance, the code
int fiftyFiftyChance ()
{
int iResult;
srand(time(NULL)); //Initialise the random number generator
iResult=rand()%2; //Generate random number, modulo 2
return iResult;
}
will do the job nicely. (I think. It's been a couple of years since I was a junior C hack.) To all intents and purposes it is random. The difference between using this method and using a quantum decay device is miniscule. Here we're also setting the seed to the number of seconds since 1/1/1970 00:00:00 GMT. For further obfustication, you could create a high order polynomial of this seed, modulo 2^32-1, but that's probably taking things a little too far.
edit:
a) Beaten to it by Nidhogg.
b) If you gamble 5 times in a row, there's a 1 in 32 chance that you'll lose every time. It's not horribly uncommon for that to happen.
Didn't say they weren't acceptible :) *slips nid a few million nc that he won with several tails in a row*
Didn't say they weren't acceptible :) *slips nid a few million nc that he won with several tails in a row*
Lots of tails in a row is entirely possible. Example:
I'm going to investigate flipping a coin ten times. I flip the coin for the first time and it lands tails side up. The second time is also a tails, in fact after nine flips it's landed tails side up every time. What are the chances of the coin landing tails side up on the tenth attempt?
50/50 of course. Runs aren't uncommon, in fact it's the runs that usually make people lose the most money.
N
1) Philith, read IMPOSSIBLE TO GET A TRUE RANDOM NUMBER ON ANY COMPUTER.
Lies. Uninformed bullshit. Stupid meme that refuses to die.
It's a statement repeated either by people who just repeat a meme that they don't understand or by academics who haven't understood that computer hardware is so much more than a Turing machine.
All modern host bridges contain randomness generators that use thermal noise as a randomness source (read any beginners course on quantum physics why this is a pure randomness source). Every modern operating system gathers environmental noise (mouse movement, network packet timing, keypress timing, interrupt timing, etc.) to add to the entropy pool. There are simple methods to turn semi-random data (meaning data that is partially predictable, but contains random elements) into a reliable randomness source.
See even random.org (http://www.random.org/) for one source of information about this.
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